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Hi all —
Every now and then, a dataset comes to my attention that fascinates me. This time, I spent a month looking into the Drone Proliferation Dataset from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). This dataset, according to CNAS, tracks global transfers of military-grade aerial drones, regardless of size and capability, between 1995 and September 1, 2023.”
There are 633 drone transfers within the data. Does this mean that during this 18-year period, there has only been 633 drone transfers? Likely not. This is national security data — data that, by its very definition, has a default of being confidential. I’m honestly shocked that Molly Campbell, the author of the dataset, was able to collect so many!
This article will be a bit more academic in nature than others, mostly do to the academic and serious nature of the topic. All graphs use CNASD Drone Proliferation Data, but were coded + designed by myself.
One outlier sticks out: UAV transfers in 2022, reaching almost 50 transfers, and then drops sharply in 2023. As we’ll see later, this is entirely due to the transfer of UAVs to Ukraine. Moreover, Armed UAVs have seen increased transfers starting from around 2014, aligning with technological advancements and increased military use. The presence of Loitering Munition transfers starting around 2018 indicates a growing interest in this type of drone, likely due to its strategic advantages in modern warfare.
A few observations:
The dominance of the United States and Israel as major drone suppliers is evident. Their numbers are significantly higher than other countries, suggesting a robust capability in drone production and export.
Iran and China appear as secondary players in the drone supply market, indicating growing capabilities or more willingness to export these technologies.
Turkey’s emergence as a drone supplier aligns with its increasing emphasis on indigenous drone technology in recent years.
A few more observations:
Ukraine’s high number of transfers likely corresponds with the recent geopolitical situation, where drones are being used for both surveillance and combat in the ongoing conflict.
Countries like India and Azerbaijan have also shown considerable interest in acquiring drone technology, possibly reflecting regional security concerns or military modernization efforts.
The presence of Yemen (Houthi) in the list indicates that non-state actors and groups involved in conflicts are also significant drone seekers.
The dominance of Israel and the United States as leading drone suppliers aligns with their status as major exporters of UAV technology. Their advanced capabilities and strong defense industries allow them to shape international markets and alliances through these exports. Israel’s role as a top drone supplier, particularly to countries like India and Azerbaijan, indicates robust strategic military cooperation and export success, bolstered by its cutting-edge technology and defense partnerships.
In contrast, Iran’s inclusion in the supplier network, specifically in the Iran → Yemen (Houthi) pair, illustrates a different strategy. By arming proxy groups like the Houthis and PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces) in Iraq, Iran is using drone technology to exert influence in regional conflict zones and shift power dynamics in its favor. The Iran → Yemen and Iran → Venezuela relationships demonstrate its efforts to support aligned groups and counteract adversaries’ influence.
The supplier-seeker dynamics reflect not only technological capability but also broader geopolitical alignments. For instance, Israel → India and United States → Ukraine partnerships indicate strategic alliances and security collaborations in key regions. Meanwhile, the presence of pairs like Israel → Azerbaijan suggests shared interests in areas facing common security challenges. Overall, drone transfers are being utilized as tools of influence and support, revealing a complex interplay of strategic alliances and regional power plays among these key players.
Is any of this new analysis? Not at all. But with cool datasets comes fun analysis, and it was a blast to work on this over the last couple of weeks.
Til next time,
Zev